During the recent trading sessions stock of New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) was gathering the crowd in the stock market. Many analysts use price trends and patterns to predict future performance, and we can glean some important insights about NYCB by examining the chart.
How has the stock performed recently?
New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) in the last month has decreased -0.16%. Shares are now up over the past year, outperforming the broad market by -100% and underperformed a peer group of similar companies by -199%. After the latest session, which saw the stock close at a price of $12.78, NYCB sits below its 52-week high. New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) has been trading in a bearish manner, based on the relative positions of the stock’s 20 and 200 day moving averages.
Of course, these surface-level price movements don’t tell us much about the direction that NYCB may be headed in the future. To forecast a stock’s future performance, analysts use momentum indicators, which take into account the size and speed of these price movements. As momentum begins to slow, it may be a sign that a recent trend is about to reverse. Two such indicators are the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the Stochastic %k Oscillator, which fluctuate on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 70 indicates that a stock is overvalued, and a reading below 30 implies that it is undervalued. The 20-day RSI for NYCB is 54.54%, which suggests that the stock is not particularly expensive or cheap, and not predisposed to a reactive price movement based on this measure. The 20-day Stochastic %k measure, which sits at 35.29%, tells a similar story, and suggests that NYCB currently trades in neutral territory.
What do the trading volumes reveal?
Analysts use volume trends to assess the level of conviction behind a stock’s price changes. When volumes suddenly increase above normal levels, it can be a sign that investors feel very strongly in one way or the other about the future direction of a stock, or may even have access to inside information. New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB) average trading volume of 3,842,415 during the past month is 3.05% below its average volume over the past year, indicating that investors have been less active than usual in the stock in recent times.
What do the analysts think?
NYCB is currently undervalued by -0.16% relative to the average 1-year price target of $12.80 taken from a group of Wall Street Analysts. The average investment recommendation on a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell) is 3.00, which implies that analysts are generally neutral in their outlook for NYCB over the next year.
How risky is the stock?
Absolute price performance isn’t the only thing analysts consider when predicting future performance: volatility matters as well. Beta, which measures the stock’s volatility relative to the overall market, is a simple but effective metric for assessing risk.
New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) has a beta of 0.54, compared to a beta of 1 for the market, which implies that the stock’s price movements are less extreme than the market as a whole. NYCB therefore has a below average level of market risk. During the past couple of weeks, NYCB average daily volatility was 30.48%, which is -10.63 percentage points higher than the average volatility over the past 100 days.