During the recent trading sessions stock of KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) was gathering the crowd in the stock market. At the end of the day, it’s only a stock’s performance that matters. With this in mind, it’s worth taking a look at the chart to get a sense of where it might be headed in the future.
How has the stock performed recently?
KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) in the last month has decreased -3.02%. Shares are now up over the past year, outperforming the broad market by -100% and underperformed a peer group of similar companies by -69%. After the latest session, which saw the stock close at a price of $17.64, KEY sits below its 52-week high. KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) has been trading in a bullish manner, based on the relative positions of the stock’s 20 and 200 day moving averages.
Of course, these surface-level price movements don’t tell us much about the direction that KEY may be headed in the future. In order to predict this, technical analysts look at momentum indicators, which measure the speed and magnitude of these price movements. The idea is that as momentum slows, it may signal the approach of key support or resistance levels and a reversal of recent trends. Two such indicators are the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the Stochastic %k Oscillator, which fluctuate on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 70 indicates that a stock is overvalued, and a reading below 30 implies that it is undervalued. The 20-day RSI for KEY is 40.28%, which suggests that the stock is not particularly expensive or cheap, and not predisposed to a reactive price movement based on this measure. The 20-day Stochastic %k measure, which sits at 15.58%, tells a different story, and suggests that KEY currently trades in oversold territory.
What do the trading volumes reveal?
Analysts use volume trends to assess the level of conviction behind a stock’s price changes. When volumes suddenly increase above normal levels, it can be a sign that investors feel very strongly in one way or the other about the future direction of a stock, or may even have access to inside information. KeyCorp (KEY) average trading volume of 12,188,150 during the past month is 12.99% above its average volume over the past year, indicating that investors have been more active than usual in the stock in recent times.
What do the analysts think?
KEY is currently undervalued by -14.29% relative to the average 1-year price target of $20.58 taken from a group of Wall Street Analysts. The average investment recommendation on a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being a strong buy, 3 a hold, and 5 a sell) is 2.20, which implies that analysts are generally neutral in their outlook for KEY over the next year.
How risky is the stock?
In order to put KEY’s recent price performance into context, we need to get a sense of how the stock moves in relation to the overall market. Beta, which measures a stock’s price volatility relative to the market, provides the cleanest measure of systematic risk for a stock.
KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) has a beta of 1.08, compared to a beta of 1 for the market, which implies that the stock’s price movements are more extreme than the market as a whole. KEY therefore has a above average level of market risk. During the past couple of weeks, KEY average daily volatility was 14.55%, which is 4.91 percentage points lower than the average volatility over the past 100 days.