Chicago Agriculture Commodities Finished Lower
$CORN, $WEAT, $SOYB
Corn futures ended lower on fund liquidation and cool central US temperatures. Weather will have much less of an impact on yield moving forward.
Supply-driven rallies occur in July, and unless crippling drought continues in August, it’s just the wrong time of year to sustain the market.
More and more of the trade is putting US Corn yield 161-165 BPA, which is not wildly Bullish but does suggest that supplies will be down some 450-700-M bu from the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) outlook in July.
In MY 2017/18 US Corn end stocks will rest between 1.7-1.9-B bu. Like Wheat, a multi-year high in US and global inventories was achieved in Y 2016, and major price changes will hinge upon South American weather this Winter, and northern hemisphere plantings next Spring.
Wheat futures ended sharply lower mostly on falling Corn prices and fund long liquidation as Russian crop estimates continue to inch higher. Russia looks to harvest a record Wheat crop, barring drought in Siberia in the next 3-4 weeks.
However, northern hemisphere harvest pressure is in fast retreat and in each year since Y 2010 Black Sea cash prices have formed their seasonal lows in early August.
Already US Gulf Wheat is the world’s low cost origin, and with EU, Black Sea cash markets to inch higher into late year, analysts say a Bearish outlook is not advised.
Last week was a week of liquidation in the Soybean market with fund managers selling out their market length on last week’s better Soybean crop ratings and light rainfall across the western Midwest.
Rainfall across most of Iowa state in the last 60 days has been less than 80% of normal, with large pockets that have had just 30-50% of normal.
Based on the past week’s rain totals, most analysts look for national good or excellent Soybaen crop ratings Monday to be close to unchanged, but still well under a year ago and near the long term historical average.
National Agricultural Statistics Service will release the August Crop Report this week, and based on current crop ratings, analysts look for a US Soybean yield near 47 BPA. This, along with bump in old crop Soybean exports will further tighten old and new crop balance sheets.
Have a terrific week.