The technicals for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) have taken shape, and with them a comprehensive picture has emerged. This is the current state of play as presented by the current technical setup. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of books have been written on trading, strategies, tactics and everything in between. The result has been the mass-proliferation of confusion and less and less attention to the fundamentals of trading success. The fact remains that sound analysis of technical and chart data is still the biggest reason failing traders are transformed into winning traders.
(GPK) has shown a marked change in trend levels over the course of recent market activity. Based on recent activity surrounding both the 50 and 200 SMAs, there’s been a marked trend created which can be described as bullish. The composite picture painted by the trends built around both SMAs has also created a measured analysis of current investor sentiment as the stock navigates upside and downside risk. The established market sentiment toward the stock has created a trading environment which can suitably be described as positive. There has also been a knock-on effect as it relates to trading volume now reflected in weak real-time sentiment on the buying and selling curve; this has created in turn, indifference toward the stock as measured across a broad statistical mix of the general trading community.
As a composite and comprehensive tableau, the stock’s position in the minds of the trading market reflects a broad analysis of technicals and inherent trends which underpin overall market-trading viability.
Relative strength indicator (RSI) and Stochastic measures are two very important leading indicators that help traders gauge overall movement of a particular stock; they act as boosters to technical analysis. Together they show in a measured way, whether or not a stock currently overbought or oversold. This indicator is crucial in determining whether traders are tipped toward the side of buying more of the stock, or doing the opposite and selling more of the stock. This is very important directional information necessary for making trading decisions. (GPK)’s current measure for its 14-day RSI is 64.60%; this is suggestive that on balance of the indicator, the stock is neutral – neither overbought nor oversold and therefore not susceptible to any undue price movements in either direction. The stochastic picture presents a complimentary view of overall sentiment in the present state for (GPK). Stochastic data gathered over the last 30 days has created a score of 93.75%. This indicates that the stock is overbought at current levels.
When assessing a trade, it is often necessary to enlist other technical indicators outside of the standard leading set. These, when employed, can often mean the difference between a losing and a winning trade. The omens depict a telling picture in terms of the near-term trading setup for (GPK); this makes things very interesting to the curious and interested eye. The +0.82 has created a positive in the trailing 30 days since initiating movement. Over the extended term, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by -1.18%. This consistent movement and its attendant overall performance have produced higher daily volatility when compared with other stocks ranking in the same peer group and on the same exchange. The picture looks the same when the stock is assessed against volatility levels measured historically. This historical volatility gives a current reading of 12.95%. These measures of historic volatility are very handy in judging the underlying price momentum and the rate of change in the price of (GPK). Bound up this picture of volatility, is another measure that gives the underlying thesis for (GPK). This can best be seen by analyzing the readings for the stock’s average true range, currently 1.49. ATR is a fine augment to the other indicators outlined above and should be used in conjunction and not as a standalone.