Wall Street quietly enters the second quarter in the coming week with a public holiday on Tuesday, July 4, likely to suppress normal trading activity and volume.
Volume is expected to be low on Monday, June 3, with trading desks likely operating on a shoestring staff ahead of the Independence Day break. The New York Stock Exchange will close early at 1 p.m. ET and will be closed all of Tuesday. Operations will resume as normal on Wednesday, July 5.
With the July 4 holiday out of the way, activity on Wall Street should pick up in anticipation of the U.S. jobs report to be released on Friday, July 7.
The U.S. economy is expected to have added 176,500 jobs in June, according to economists surveyed by FactSet. Roughly 138,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May. The unemployment rate is anticipated to have held at 4.3%, while hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month on month.
The ADP Employment report for June will be released on Thursday, instead of Wednesday, while weekly jobless claims are set for their regular release schedule on Thursday.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June will be made public Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policy arm of the U.S. central bank, opted to raise interest rates at its June 13-14 meeting. The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, putting its target rate at 1% to 1.25%. The increase was the Fed’s second of the year and was taken as a vote of confidence in the U.S. economic recovery and future pace of growth.
Most Fed officials also telegraphed one more rate hike this year and an average of three in 2018. Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave projections of median short-term rates as 1.4% at the end of this year; 2.1% at the end of 2018; and 2.9% at the end of 2019.
The Fed’s decision to raise rates was all but a given in Wall Street’s eyes. CME Group fed funds futures had priced in a nearly 100% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. Weeks of hawkish Fed commentary had cushioned markets for a June rate hike as members pointed to a healthy labor market and generally positive economic trends.
The third-quarter earnings season won’t kick off in earnest until the big banks report their quarterly performances next week. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) are set to report on Friday, July 14.